ThomasGoodwin.com

Yesterday I posted some more gloom and doom news about the national picture in real estate (an expected drop of 8.6% in home sales nationwide this year). I thought it was only fitting that to put that decrease in home sales into perspective I would offer up a silver lining and keep it local. While the number of sales nationwide is down significantly, there MUST be an increase in the number of homes sold per year in the greater Cincinnati area, or at least this is true when we look at the long-term of the past 5 to 7 years instead of just this year.

Since 2000, the percentage of owner-occupied housing in the greater Cincinnati area has grown from 66.2% of homes to 69.6% of homes. This is a significant improvement over a seven year period (the figure was through the end of 2006 - not through the year to date in 2007). Ironically, in 2000, the national average was also 66.2% of homes in America being owner-occupied. So in 2000, the Cincinnati area was just a prime example of the mix of homeowners and renters, a microcosm of the nation if you will.

The national homeownership percentage also increased over that same time period, but not by as much as the greater Cincinnati area. The national average for homeownership was 67.3% at the end of 2006, well below Cincinnati’s level of 69.6%.

There is some caution to reading these numbers in such a positive light though. Within the city of Cincinnati itself, the home ownership rate did increase but remains well below the national, state, and regional levels. The city of Cincinnati increased from 38.9% in 2000 to 42.3% at the end of 2006. The state level was 70%.

Certain high growth suburbs, like Mason, Ohio in Warren county helped drive up the median home price AND the percent of homeownership in the area.

In stark contrast, a recent article in the Cincinnati Enquirer highlighted the Hamilton County Sheriff’s role in assisting Cincinnati Police in reducing the amount of crime in neighborhoods like Over the Rhine. While the article was directed at the city and county joining forces to reduce inner city crime, it did casually mention in passing that the homeownership rate in Over the Rhine was less than 10%!!! That’s right, single digits. Less than 1 in 10 people.

So now we see the two extremes tugging on the average… Mason and similar suburbs on one extreme of good examples of growth, and Over the Rhine and inner city neighborhoods struggling to compete with the suburbs.

It is still encouraging to see homeownership levels on the rise though, both locally and on the national scale. Only time will tell if or to what extend this growth in homeownership was attributed to risky mortgage products that would have otherwise forced some new home owners to continue to rent.

As always, I welcome your comments and feedback…

Numerous statistics and references were drawn from the Cincinnati Enquirer online edition. Namely, the article Homeownership at Record High by Enquirer writer Lisa Bernard-Kuhn was used as a reference in writing this blog entry.

The National Association of Realtors (hereafter referred to as NAR)released preliminary data today from its Senior Economist, Lawrence Yun, that the sale of homes nationwide would be down approximately 8.6% in 2007. This would amount to 5.9 million homes sold in 2007 compared to 6.5 million sold last year. On the bright side, the NAR expects home sales to climb to 6.3 million next year, a slight rebound but still lower than sales in 2006. The 5.9 million homes expected to be sold in 2007 is the lowest the housing market has seen since 2002 when approximately 5.6 million homes were sold.

While the fears of subprime mortgages are still a concern, there has been a reduction in the number of new homes being constructed and therefore not as much pressure is being added to the current inventory levels by builders. If the foreclosure rate increases unexpectedly, or more than expected I should say, the inventory levels could go higher and cause further price deteoration and a lingering stagnation (or glut) of properties on the market. Such a spike in foreclosures could reduce the number of units sold in 2008 and further drive down the average sale price as well. It remains to be seen how much the subprime mortgage market and the foreclosure rate will affect the market but it is something being closely watched by investors in the US and abroad.

Investors (both of real estate investment and those investing in securities) as well as homeowners, real estate practioners, and so forth would be wise to take note of the following dates when real estate industry data is released:

The 16th of every month: Number of housing starts and building permits (data released by the US Commerce Department).
Last business day of every month at approximately 10:00am EST: New Home Sales for the month prior (data released by the US Commerce Department)
Around the 25th of every month: Existing home sales for the prior month (data released by the National Association of Realtors)

All of the above economic data can be found by going through financial websites, newspapers, etc. For example, you can go to Yahoo! Finance and click on Economic Calendar and see a list of economic data being released on any given date and time. A brief explanation of the data can be found by then clicking on the name of the item once you are in the economic calendar.

Some statistics in this article were derived from a Yahoo! news story published online on September 11, 2007 by Alan Zibel, an AP Business Writer. The Yahoo! story was entitled “Realtors Predict Drop in 2007 Home Sales“

I am proud and excited to announce that I have submitted my renewal fee and application to the State of Ohio Department of Commerce, Division of Real Estate and Professional Licensing. My real estate salespersons license, which is due to renew on this month, will now be valid until this same month in 2010.

As many of you may know from reading my About the Blogger page, I have been an Ohio licensed real estate agent since 2001. This will essentially ensure that I will be a nine year seasoned professional the next time my license is due for renewal.

While it may not seem significant that I only have six years experience at this point in time, it is important to remember that I am only 26 years old. Therefore, I have been licensed to sell real estate since I was 20 - and likewise 3 years longer than I myself have been a homeowner.

I am excited about my growing tenure and experience in the real estate industry due to the notorious high turnover of newly licensed associates. It is no secret that over half of newly licensed associates leave the business within the first year, and the number that stick around after three years (the first time the license is renewed with the 30 hours of continuing education in Ohio) is even more dismal - I’ve heard upwards of 80 to 90% drop out of the business before they reach the three year anniversary.

This is also an excellent opportunity to remind the general public that there is a distinct difference between simply being a licensed real estate agent and a member of the National Association of Realtors. I have been a member Realtor since my original licensing in 2001 and firmly believe this organization helps increase the standard of care by member agents with respect to dealing with clients, fellow agents, and the general public. While it may seem trivial to ask an agent if she or he is a member of the local board of Realtors, it is important because those licensed agents have agreed to be bound by a higher code of ethics than what the Ohio Revised Code requires. I personally am a member of the Middletown Board of Realtors and likewise the Ohio Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors.

I look forward to serving the public for many years to come and I want to reassure my clients - both past and present - that as long as I am able to maintain my license, I will continue to be here to help in the buying and selling of real estate in Ohio.

As always, I welcome your comments and feedback…

I just posted an article about how I fought the law… well, the Ohio Administrative Code regarding open burning. It appears someone else has taken matters into their own hands when it comes to dealing with the law:

Yes, it appears that in Miami Township, Ohio (a suburb of Cincinnati) someone has taken it upon themselves to let the public know just how they feel about their police force… while doing so anonymously. I wish I knew why this person did this… there simply HAS to be a good story behind this. Was it a parking ticket? A speeding ticket? Or some other traffic citation?! Imagine the puzzled look on the officer’s face when the speeder grins and gladly accepts the $85 speeding ticket. The article on the Cincinnati Enquirer website said the police narrowed down the time of the incident to “between 8pm August 27th and 7am August 28th.” (Adobe .pdf version of the article). Wow. I’m going out on a limb here to say it will be hard for them to pin down a suspect on this one. I mean, even if they have a short list of people to choose from (the article states someone must’ve had a key to the backhoe and knew how to operate it), you are still facing a group of alibias where most of them consist of this:

Detective: “Sir/mam, where were you between 8pm and 7am on August 27/28th?”

Suspect: “I watched the 10:00 news and then I went to bed; woke up at my usual 5/6/7/8 or whenever”….

The point is… deep down someone is snickering and feeling vindicated. I can’t condone this kind of behavior, but I have to be impressed with the creativity and great length that someone went through to pull this off. It may seem juvenile, but what it really did was embarrass the local authorities. If you lived in Miami Township, or if you DO live in Miami Twp, how much does this make you believe in your police force?!

This should just be a reminder to people that we live in a society in which some people are not all there in the head. I can’t imagine a sane, rational person thinking this is a wise thing to do. Were there drugs involved? Was the person who did this high as a kite? We may never know. But next time someone cuts you off in traffic or lets their dog pee on your lawn, just remember they could be taking some kind of anti-depressant or on some type of illegal drug. It’s best not to instigate or fuel a volatile situation in this day and age in which we live. Ok, I will get off my soapbox, but let’s try to be respectful of one another and of course respectful of the law and those who are in power and risk their lives to enforce it.

As always I welcome your comments and feedback…

It was a draw. Stalemate. While I am preface this by saying I am NOT an attorney, I do feel that through my business law classes and experience in government regulated businesses (real estate and insurance) I think I have a good handle on how the legal system works. But recently I discovered a new part of the law that I had previously not been exposed to: the Ohio Administrative Code. Did you know… “With few exceptions, most types of open burning are prohibited in Ohio“… this is a quote directly from the pamphlet entitled Open Burning - A Guide to Open Burning Safely and Legally, published by Hamilton County [Ohio] Environmental Services with input from the US and Ohio EPA.

This past Sunday I decided it was time to get rid of the six-foot tall pile of tree branches and yard waste in my back yard. Yes, it’s been a busy summer of trimming pine trees here in Cincinnati. I did not want to send all of this to the landfill, and I did not want to pay some tree trimmer to haul it away. Why not burn it? Well, apparently this is against the law… er, administrative code… in Ohio. One of my neighbors called the police on me for having an “open burn” as the officer called it. I didn’t see what the big deal was… I had two fire extinguishers, a charged hose, and two buckets of water. Doesn’t matter, even if the fire is well-controlled I did not have a permit.

The Permit Process:

1) Call the local fire department and request application for the Open Burn. You must specify what you are burning and when you will burn it. You should schedule this at least two weeks in advance I’m told.

2) Submit application to fire department. Upon fire department approval, go to step 3.

3) Submit fire department approved permit application along with any county fee to the county’s department of environmental services division for final approval.

Either one of the two government entities (the fire department or the county environmental services division) can deny the application for a permit, for virtually any reason by the way.

So how does anyone ever get to burn yard waste with all that red tape?!

Ah ha! There are exceptions to the Ohio Administrative Code regarding open burning.

Quoting once again from the same Hamilton County Environmental Services brochure:
The following exceptions are allowed: “cooking for human consumption (e.g. barbecues), heating tar, welding torches, smudge pots, and heating for warmth for outdoor workers.”

Guess who had his 1st Annual Thomas Goodwin Labor Day Cookout this year!!! That’s right… there were hot dogs, sausages, cheddarwursts, and s’mores served up over a pile of burning pine needles. And not only did I make sure I notified the fire and police departments in advance of my legal cookout (as a courtesy of course), I went one step further and invited these two fine public servant departments to my cookout. I would love to see the neighbor’s face when he or she called to report the second fire in as many days only to see the police arrive to partake in a hotdog and Coke.

The moral of this story… wait, let’s not call it a moral. I know what I did was legal but let’s not get into morals and ethics just yet… the little nugget of wisdom I took away from this event was that sometimes you have to look for the legal way to do things even if means making the simple task more complicated. Both days I had a fire. The second one was more work and more involved as it required me to go buy hotdogs, buns, condiments, etc. It made my fire legitmate though, and it was more enjoyable, too. I got to have a cookout with some close friends and even invited (some of) the neighbors.

As always, I welcome your comments and feedback…

Please pardon my recent absence. It was partially due to some long hours of work and completing the required 30 hours of continuing education for my real estate license. It was also partially due to taking a little time off to relax and enjoy the Labor Day weekend. There will be a separate post regarding the holiday weekend! This post is an update to my August 20th article:

I found the letter!!! It turns out I did not throw it away, it was buried under a stack of bills and magazines in my living room. Here are the details:

For $69.50, National Deed Service Inc. will send you a “Certified Copy of your Deed” to your property. By “Certified Copy” they simply mean they will request a copy from the county recorder’s office in which you bought the property. As I mentioned before, they do have the disclaimer that they are “not affiliated with any governmental agency” and “Many government records are available free or at nominal cost from government agencies” but I guess they are banking on people not reading that far down the page. Or perhaps they feel that $69.50 is a fair price to pay for their company to do all that tough work of requesting a copy of the deed and mailing it to you.

Bottom line is this: you can call the county recorder where you bought the property and request a copy of your deed if you want/need one. If you recently bought your property, namely within the past month or so, you might want to call the title agency or attorney that facilitated the transaction and ask for a copy to be sent to you. There you have it, plain and simple. Don’t pay for something that you should be able to simply request and receive upon completion of your purchase. The Deed is your receipt showing that you bought the property, you shouldn’t have to pay someone $69.50 for a receipt.

Note: I may scan a copy of this letter into Adobe .pdf format and post it to this blog in the near future. Till then, be alert when you receive these official looking letters in the mail.

As always, I welcome your feedback and comments…

For those of you that don’t know, I just recently moved from a condo into a house. As a Realtor, you would think I have the timeline of when things are suppose to happen pretty well memorized. So you can imagine my surprise this past week when I get this official-looking letter in the mail with instructions on how to order an official copy of the deed to my property.

I must’ve flipped the letter over two or three times (it was front and back) before I realized this was just some shifty person’s way of making a quick buck. You see, here’s a perfect example of someone (or some official-looking company/LLC in this case) that thought they could get involved in a real estate transaction that didn’t involve them… and do so after the transaction was done!

This company prints up cool-looking, official-like letters and mails them out to everyone that buys property in a given area, which is easy to do since these transactions are of public record and are even printed in the newspaper. With many newspapers going online, one could do this from anywhere. They tell you in their letter that if you haven’t yet received the certified copy of the deed to your house to respond to this letter and they will send it to you.

The problem with this you ask?! Most people buy homes with a loan… a mortgage. Some mortgage companies do not send you a copy of the deed or do so well after the transaction has been completed. The original, signed deed is filed with the county auditor’s office and anyone can go into the county auditor’s office and review those documents at any time. For a fee you can have them print you a copy. In some technology-savvy counties you can just do this online.

So when Joe Homeowner goes back into his house and starts hunting for his certified copy of his deed, he realizes he doesn’t have one. He then responds to this dressed up advertisement and pays them an ungodly sum (I think they wanted $67.50 or some odd but specific amount from me) plus whatever fee the county charges them - the company - to get the copy of the deed plus postage and handling to send it to you.

Oh yeah, and one more thing. In tiny, tiny print at the bottom of the document they disclose that they are not a government department or affiliation and that many of these deeds are available directly from the issuing agency. Nevermind the fact that they named their company something official sounding and mailed out all these letters asking you to order your certified copy of your deed.

Save your money. Do one of the following to track down a copy of your deed for your records: call your mortgage company and ask them to send you a copy, or the title agency/closing agency/attorney that handled the transaction, or call the county auditor’s office directly to get a copy if you want one. Don’t panic because you don’t have a copy, as long as it’s filed with the county you are o.k. But do make sure it’s filed with the county. And do make sure you get a copy from either the mortgage company, the title agency, or the county directly. Save it just in case there is somehow a mixup or glitch in the county’s records and your property is mistaken for another, etc. Which brings up another good point: Buy Title Insurance. There will be an entirely separate blog post about title insurance due to the amount of things that we can discuss on that.

My bank’s title agency did in fact send me a copy of my deed but there was a significant lag between when it was filed with the county and when I received it. Therefore, if this company gets these letters out quick enough, the unsuspecting homeowner could purchase it, only to receive it from this company and the bank or title agency later. I’m sorry I don’t have the name of the company, etc. to report. I was so disgusted when I read the letter I ripped it in half and tossed it in the garbage. I will keep my eye out for others like it though and report them on this blog when I come across them.

As always, I welcome your comments and feedback…

I don’t like to write about my accomplishments. It makes me feel like they are not as impressive when I have to broadcast them. But then I guess if I don’t tell people about them, how will they ever know when I have achieved something!?!

So it is with great reluctance that I post this to my blog. This week I completed my Accredited Advisor in Insurance (AAI) designation. While this may not exactly rival completing my MBA at Xavier University (which I am set to do within the next year… or so… as I only have 5 courses left), this is still an important designation that builds on my existing coursework in insurance. Not only does it satisfy my continuing education requirements for the state of Ohio, but it has also provided me with a much better understanding of how to manage an insurance agency should I ever choose to do so. As many of you know, right now I am not actively selling insurance as an agent, but it’s something I might do (again) in the future.

You can read more about the Accredited Advisor in Insurance designation by visiting the AICPCU.org website. The complete list of my academic accomplishments and professional experience can be found on the About the Blogger page of my website. I am continuing to make progress toward completing my MBA, obtaining the Chartered Property Casualty Underwriter (CPCU) designation, as well as various other designations. The next thing that I absolutely must complete though, is my required 30 hours of real estate continuing education that is due on my birthday this year. Once I complete that, my real estate license will be valid through 2010.

Oh, and I am also proud to be associated with the Xavier University School of Business and particularly the MBA program. Once again, and for the second year in a row, the part-time MBA program is ranked as one of the best in the nation by US News and World Report, 26th overall.

As always, I appreciate your comments and feedback…

There’s an old saying Change is good. I’ve continually added more financial topics to this website and received an increasing number of emails and feedback about its content. But it’s not enough to simply add more topics or to post more articles to my blog with increased frequency though. I am now striving to add valuable content that is original in thought and provokes a great discussion.

To help keep the audience as up-to-date as possible, an RSS Feed has been added to the website. By clicking on the Subscribe button you can receive the latest updates in your email or through your Yahoo!, Google, etc. homepages/accounts. I want you all to know that I do not have access to a list of my subscribers so I don’t know who is “accepting the feed” and therefore I do not know who my subscribers are (unless they of course email me and indicate that they are a subscriber). I mention this because I don’t want people to be concerned that their personal information will be passed on to others and also that it is strictly anonymous. I don’t who reads this blog, and I like it that way because then it is no different whether you simply visit my website or receive the content via email.

I do however appreciate any and all feedback, comments, criticisms, etc. And to provoke a great discussion about current events related to my website’s theme All Things Financial, I would envite you all to let me know what financial topics and which events in the stock market or real estate market are of most importance to you. These comments in the blog or emails are a great way for me to tailor the content to the readers’ interests and I hope you will make this website an interactive and fun financial resource for all to share.

Thanks for reading, I appreciate you visiting my website!

Wow. It’s been less than a month since I posted a chart on this blog about the Dow reaching 14,000 and closing at that price (look back at my July 19th blog post). Just 4 days shy of a month and the Dow has fallen over a thousand points on concerns over the sluggish real estate market, over-extended consumers and therefore a concern that consumer confidence is wavering, subprime mortgage defaults potentially exploding, and a lack of liquidity as investors shun mortgage-backed securities - especially those by subprime borrowers.

While the market briefly rebounded for a day in response to the Federal Reserve injecting more liquidity into the banking system, the sell-off continues and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has closed today at 12,861.47. The article posted to Yahoo! Finance does an excellent job summarizing what’s currently going on in the market. (Adobe PDF Version).

Unless we start to see some positive economic data or corporate earnings being released, I would expect to see a few more weeks of the market trading overall downward, with a few upswings as some investors jump back in to buy shares at lower prices than they previously sold as well as investors covering their calls or adding more shares to their account to lower their average basis (those die-hard dollar cost averaging investors). In general though, the Yahoo! article was right that historically and typically the months of August and September are the slower months for the stock market. It may be an excellent time to buy if you are in it for the long-term, say 1-3 years. But I am not expecting to see the Dow Jones Industrial Average back up to its all-time high, or even remotely close to 14,000, by the end of the year.

As always, I appreciate your comments and feedback…