The Week Ahead: 7/8/07 to 7/14/07
Sunday, July 8th, 2007Last week we saw investors push the major indices higher, although on a lighter volume of trading. If last week was a lucky week because of Saturday’s date being 7/7/07, hopefully this week won’t follow suit and be unlucky with Friday the 13th.
Several economic indicators will be reported throughout the week:
Consumer Credit for the month of May will be released on Monday, July 9th.
Wholesale Inventories for May on Tuesday, July 10th.
Crude inventories on July 11th.
Initial umemployment claims, the trade balance for May, and the treasury budget for June will be released on Thursday, July 12th.
Export and Import prices, business inventories, the Michigan Sentiment’s preliminary July numbers, and retail sales will be reported on Friday the 13th.
Retail sales are what I would like to briefly focus on. With the slowing home sales, one has to wonder how consumer confidence and retail sales will keep up if people worry about an inevitable increase in their adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) as well as their ability to borrow additional money or refinance to save money.
I wouldn’t worry much about the trade balance as the dollar has been falling recently against the Euro, making our products a little more affordable for those over seas with higher valued currency. Look to retail sales at the end of the week to be a make or break point for much of the market.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see some early-week buying to follow up last week’s mini rally. The Dow is near (64 points off of) its all-time high of 13,676, which was set just over a month ago on June 4th, 2007.
Just so people don’t think I am biased in only looking at the DOW, other major indices are nearing some higher numbers… The S&P 500 is just 8 points shy of its all-time high. The NASDAQ is sitting on a 6.5 year high after Friday’s rally.
Turning from economic data and market indices, let’s look at earnings announcements this coming week…
Alcoa, Inc (NYSE:AA), a Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 component, is expected to report its second quarter earnings on Monday, July 9th. Analysts expect $0.81 per share earnings. If the company beats expectations, this could give the DOW and the S&P averages a lift on Monday.
Here’s looking to The Week Ahead… try to avoid crossing the path of any black cats on Friday. As always, your feedback and comments are welcome…
