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Will investors find a lucky windfall this week to start the second half of 2007?! The week ends with the date 7-7-07… a lucky combination if you’re playing the slot machines at a casino. Let’s face it, it’s better than last year having to confront the dreaded 6-6-06.

Let’s see what’s in store for us this week…

Investors should see a relatively quiet week until Thursday and Friday. The markets will be closed Wednesday, July 4th, for the Independence Day holiday here in the US.

July 3rd… Factory Orders are reported by the Dept of Commerce. I wouldn’t expect the stock market to hold it’s breath awaiting this news. The durable goods that were previously reported are a component of this (we simply add nondurable good to the report) so much of this information and what we can expect is already built into the market.

Also on July 3rd are those car and truck sales. As I mentioned in my June 24th blog when I first announced this new weekly series, this report will probably go unnoticed. I believe I contrasted the low importance of these reports with the high importance of the unemployment levels that will be reported this coming Friday, July 6th.

July 6th… Unemployment data is released along with a few reports that coincide with the unemployment data - namely nonfarm payroll levels, hourly pay, and the average workweek in hours. The unemployment data is what you need to watch. The change in the unemployment level should be down slightly in my opinion. I would expect a very modest decrease but I wouldn’t expect to see the stock market rally on this news unless the number is significantly lower than the expectation.

The expectation is that the unemployment rate will be around 4.5%. I think we will see it around 4.3 or 4.4% but even if it comes in a little higher, say 4.6%, you won’t see the market move radically. If the unemployment level came in above 5% you will see some afternoon selling on Friday.

Watch the number Friday morning, if the unemployment level comes in lower you might be able to do some profit-taking if your stock portfolio ticks upward. If the unemployment level is up significantly, you may find some good deals if there is a sell-off. It might be a good time to buy if you have done your homework and find some stocks with a solid balance sheet and have met their earnings expectations consistently. Don’t let short-term economic data news affect your long-term investing strategy!!!

Here’s looking to the week ahead… as always, your comments are welcome…

Most people don’t know that I’ve spent several years in the big leagues. I try to be low key about it, but then someone like ESPN goes and creates a webpage devoted to my career and my statistics. I guess it’s good to show that I’m a well-rounded person and not just a talking head on the Internet…

Tom Goodwin, Major League Baseball Veteran Player

Ok, so if you see the picture you will realize that there is more than one Tom Goodwin in this world. But it’s nice that we share a name where each of us is a good, upstanding citizen. I would probably not be too happy if I shared a name with someone like Chris Henry, or similar pro athlete that always seems to make the news for reasons other than his or her athletic talent.

As always, I welcome your comments…

Let’s recap what happened in the stock market last week:

Last week marked the end of the 1st half of 2007.
The Dow finished the second quarter of the year up 8.5%
The S&P 500 - up 5.8%
The NASDAQ - up 7.5%

Interesting to note, the Dow and the S&P 500 finished this past week roughly around the same place that they started the week (see the charts above that I copied from Yahoo! Finance)

About those economic indicators…

Housing, both existing home sales and new construction, continued to disappoint by posting lower than expected numbers.

Surprises… the market, i.e. investors, HATE surprises!!!

There was a bomb scare in London when authorities found a Mercedes Benz parked in a busy part of town (the articles that I read noted a lot of night clubs in the area) packed with explosives and nails… a reminder that terrorism has not been eliminated and even if it had been wiped out, there are still some crazy people out there.

Final thoughts on last week…

I think some hedge fund managers, mutual fund/pension/portfolio managers, and yes even some individual investors and day traders did some profit-taking this past week to lock-in (realize) gains that they made during the first two quarters of 2007. I had speculated that this might happen in my blog last week titled “The Week Ahead”.

Here’s to a successful second half of 2007, regardless what your investing strategy is… I hope your investments do well as we continue on this journey together. As always, I welcome your comments and feedback…